Green Pool trims sugar deficit forecast, a touch...http://www.agrimoney.com/news/green-pool-trims-sugar-deficit-forecast-a-touch...--10697.html
May 05, 2017 at 3:00 PM
Sugar analyst Green Pool only slightly trimmed its forecast for a hefty sugar surplus next season, as consumption grows only sluggishly despite easing sugar prices.
"Consumption is a major issue for sugar, with global consumption growing only slowly," Green Pool said.
"Some growth is being seen in developing countries, while consumption is actually falling in some developed countries."
Consumption grown slowly
Green Pool forecast the global 2017-18 sugar balance to show a surplus of 4.779m tonnes, down slightly from the 4.716m tonnes surplus forecast last month.
Greenpool trimmed its forecast for the 2016-17 sugar deficit, to 928,000 tonnes, citing increased better-than-expected Indian production, and reduced consumption there in response to high prices.
While production is seen growing by nearly 7% next season, to 188.11m tonnes, consumption is seen rising by about 1.5% over the same period.
Still, Green Pool noted that even this low rate of increase was above the ten-year average, and "picking up slightly from the slump in sugar consumption over the past two years".
The surplus would grow global sugar stocks to 79.69m tonnes.
"Given this, it is not surprising that global sugar prices have fallen back," Green Pool said.
Uncertainty over hurricane damage
The analyst downplayed the damage caused by the recent cyclone across Australia's sugar belt, trimming expectations to 4.60m tonnes, although it warned that the extent of the loss would be hard to estimate until harvest starts next month.
"This is because a lot of sugarcane was knocked over and flooded, and this type of damage is almost impossible to assess until the harvest is underway," Green Pool said.
Green Pool noted that the result of the storm was "a complicated equation," given that areas where the cane was undamaged would have benefited from the accompanying rains.
But Green Pool noted that various national forecasters have the possibility of an El Nino event, which would hurt prospects for the Asian crop next year, at between 40 and 70% likely.
The analyst warned that "with global sugar stocks at relatively low levels, this development needs to be monitored closely".
Brazilian production to rise
Green Pool forecast centre south Brazilian sugar production at 35.5m tonnes next season, 300,000 tonnes higher than its previous forecast, as it cut its forecast for ethanol production.
In comparison the Brazilian crop supply agency Conab, sees centre south sugar output at 35.46m tonnes.
Thai sugar production was seen growing to 11.0m tonnes next season, up from a 10.03m tonne harvest this year that was itself better than many expected "even a few months ago".
Green Pool maintained its forecast for a 20% increase in beet sugar production in the EU following this year's deregulation of the sugar industry, at 18.3m tonnes.
And the analyst warned that a drop in EU sugar prices would be unlikely to boost consumption, given that deregulation will also increase competition from grain-based isoglucose.
November 2, 2017
The global sugar market is poised for a surplus of 9.80 million tonnes 2017/18, Australia-based analyst Green Pool said on Tuesday, amid stronger production and sluggish consumption growth.Read More
November 1, 2017
World sugar dynamics are the “worst” - for bulls – in at least 12 years, Green Pool said, hiking its estimate of the global output surplus, and hinting at the potential for further growth in stocks “into 2018-19 and perhaps beyond”.Read More
August 24, 2017
The global sugar surplus is expanding as Brazil, Thailand and the European Union drive world production to record, according to Green Pool Commodity Specialists. Supplies will outpace demand by 7.1 million metric tons in the 2017-18 season that starts in October in most countries, a 29 percent increase from a May forecast.Read More
July 3, 2017
Green Pool highlighted the threat to sugar consumption from the likes of health concerns and rival sweeteners as it raised by 837,000 tonnes its forecast for the looming world sugar production surplus. The Australia-based sugar consultancy revised up to 5.55m tonnes its forecast for the global output surplus in 2017-18, taking it to the largest since 2013-14.Read More
May 24, 2017
It’s not this year’s price crash that haunts the $150 billion sugar industry. It’s the fear of worse to come. Raw sugar’s 16 percent drop ranks it bottom of the 22 raw materials on the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Shocks to demand in top consumer India and prospects of more European supply are helping shift the market to a surplus, hurting prices. Yet beyond such market dampeners, hang darker clouds. After decades of stable demand growth, almost doubling per person since 1960, the world is heading for a tipping point as shoppers turn against the cola and candy blamed for an obesity epidemic in the rich world. At the same time, sugar has to compete with cheap syrups increasingly used in processed food. "Growth is not what it’s been," Tom McNeill, managing director of Green Pool, said in an interview. "There is undoubtedly a move by global bottlers and by a lot of global food manufacturers to reduce the sugar content in their products."Read More
May 24, 2017
The "war on sugar" being waged by governments and consumers to combat public health emergencies like diabetes is slowing growth in global demand, which along with other factors could signal a fundamental shift in consumption ahead. Consumption may grow at its slowest pace in seven years in 2017/18, according to analyst group Platts Kingsman. It forecasts a rise of 1.04 percent, nearly half the average growth of about 2 percent per year over the last decade. "Consumption is generally stagnating in developed countries," Tom McNeill, director at commodity analyst group Green Pool, told Reuters.Read More
May 9, 2017
Global sugar exports will exceed demand this season and the next as India brings in less than expected and the European Union boosts output, according to Tropical Research Services, which advises hedge funds. Exports will beat import demand every quarter through September 2018, TRS estimates. The trade-flow surplus will total 398,000 metric tons in the third quarter, reversing a previous forecast for a shortage of more than double that amount, said Sean Diffley, the firm’s head of sugar and ethanol research.Read More
May 5, 2017
HOME COMMODITIES COMPANIES MARKETS OPINION DATA CALENDAR SUBSCRIBE Thurs 11th May 2017 PRINTABLE VERSION EMAIL TO A FRIEND RSS FEEDS 13:57 UK, 5th May 2017, by William Clarke Green Pool trims sugar deficit forecast, a touch... Sugar analyst Green Pool only slightly trimmed its forecast for a hefty sugar surplus next season, as consumption grows only sluggishly despite easing sugar prices. "Consumption is a major issue for sugar, with global consumption growing only slowly," Green Pool said. "Some growth is being seen in developing countries, while consumption is actually falling in some developed countries."Read More