Indonesia sugar demand eyed, China reopenshttp://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/84369-indonesia-sugar-demand-eyed-china-reopens-.html
October 08, 2012 at 10:12 AM
SINGAPORE: Sugar demand from Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest consumer, could lift Thai raw premiums despite the approaching crushing season, while export cuts by main rubber producers could propel Tokyo futures to a new high, dealers said on Monday.
Among other soft commodities, year-end demand will help keep butter ratios firm in Asia, but coffee differentials in top robusta producer Vietnam could widen as fresh beans are expected to enter the physical market later this month.
Thai raw sugar premiums could trade in a range of 70 to 90 points to New York's March contract this week, with buyers in Indonesia likely to make fresh inquiries. The next Thai crushing season is due to start in October or November.
"With flat production growth and steadily rising consumption, Indonesia's sugar market is increasingly turning to imports to fill its growing deficit," said Tom McNeill, director of Green Pool, a commodities analyst in Brisbane.
"Sugar consumption has risen from about 4.15 million metric tons in 2005 to 5.35 million metric tonnes in 2012."
Indonesia usually buys about 2 million tonnes of raw sugar a year, mostly from Thailand, and recently issued import permits for 250,000 tonnes of raw sugar. "Consumption growth has been driven by growing demand from the food and beverage industry, an increase in incomes and population growth of 1.4 percent annually," said McNeill.
"Direct human consumption accounts for around 50 percent of total consumption, while the food and beverage industry uses the balance."
Tokyo rubber futures, which set the tone for physical prices, were closed on Monday for a holiday but the global benchmark could to find support at 260 yen a kg, having rallied to their highest since late May at 275.5 yen last week.
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have set up a support mechanism to intervene if rubber prices fall below $2.70 per kg after agreeing in August to trim exports by 300,000 tonnes from October to shore up prices hit by a faltering global economy.
"I think we will trade in a range of 260 to 280 yen, and I would think China will return to buy to support the market," said a dealer in Kuala Lumpur.
Markets in China, the world's largest rubber consumer, reopened on Monday after a week-long holiday. China imported 1.37 million tonnes of natural rubber in the January-August period, up 13.74 percent year on year.
November 2, 2017
The global sugar market is poised for a surplus of 9.80 million tonnes 2017/18, Australia-based analyst Green Pool said on Tuesday, amid stronger production and sluggish consumption growth.Read More
November 1, 2017
World sugar dynamics are the “worst” - for bulls – in at least 12 years, Green Pool said, hiking its estimate of the global output surplus, and hinting at the potential for further growth in stocks “into 2018-19 and perhaps beyond”.Read More
August 24, 2017
The global sugar surplus is expanding as Brazil, Thailand and the European Union drive world production to record, according to Green Pool Commodity Specialists. Supplies will outpace demand by 7.1 million metric tons in the 2017-18 season that starts in October in most countries, a 29 percent increase from a May forecast.Read More
July 3, 2017
Green Pool highlighted the threat to sugar consumption from the likes of health concerns and rival sweeteners as it raised by 837,000 tonnes its forecast for the looming world sugar production surplus. The Australia-based sugar consultancy revised up to 5.55m tonnes its forecast for the global output surplus in 2017-18, taking it to the largest since 2013-14.Read More
May 24, 2017
It’s not this year’s price crash that haunts the $150 billion sugar industry. It’s the fear of worse to come. Raw sugar’s 16 percent drop ranks it bottom of the 22 raw materials on the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Shocks to demand in top consumer India and prospects of more European supply are helping shift the market to a surplus, hurting prices. Yet beyond such market dampeners, hang darker clouds. After decades of stable demand growth, almost doubling per person since 1960, the world is heading for a tipping point as shoppers turn against the cola and candy blamed for an obesity epidemic in the rich world. At the same time, sugar has to compete with cheap syrups increasingly used in processed food. "Growth is not what it’s been," Tom McNeill, managing director of Green Pool, said in an interview. "There is undoubtedly a move by global bottlers and by a lot of global food manufacturers to reduce the sugar content in their products."Read More
May 24, 2017
The "war on sugar" being waged by governments and consumers to combat public health emergencies like diabetes is slowing growth in global demand, which along with other factors could signal a fundamental shift in consumption ahead. Consumption may grow at its slowest pace in seven years in 2017/18, according to analyst group Platts Kingsman. It forecasts a rise of 1.04 percent, nearly half the average growth of about 2 percent per year over the last decade. "Consumption is generally stagnating in developed countries," Tom McNeill, director at commodity analyst group Green Pool, told Reuters.Read More
May 9, 2017
Global sugar exports will exceed demand this season and the next as India brings in less than expected and the European Union boosts output, according to Tropical Research Services, which advises hedge funds. Exports will beat import demand every quarter through September 2018, TRS estimates. The trade-flow surplus will total 398,000 metric tons in the third quarter, reversing a previous forecast for a shortage of more than double that amount, said Sean Diffley, the firm’s head of sugar and ethanol research.Read More
May 5, 2017
HOME COMMODITIES COMPANIES MARKETS OPINION DATA CALENDAR SUBSCRIBE Thurs 11th May 2017 PRINTABLE VERSION EMAIL TO A FRIEND RSS FEEDS 13:57 UK, 5th May 2017, by William Clarke Green Pool trims sugar deficit forecast, a touch... Sugar analyst Green Pool only slightly trimmed its forecast for a hefty sugar surplus next season, as consumption grows only sluggishly despite easing sugar prices. "Consumption is a major issue for sugar, with global consumption growing only slowly," Green Pool said. "Some growth is being seen in developing countries, while consumption is actually falling in some developed countries."Read More