Big Russia beet crop to cut sugar imports, weather risks remain
October 27, 2015 at 1:27 PM
27-Oct-2015 07:44:10 AM
• Green Pool sees near-record Russian sugar output
• Russia has moved toward self-sufficiency in sugar
• Russia was formerly world's top raw sugar importer
By David Brough
LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Russia will import less sugar if hopes for a near-record beet harvest come true, but analysts warn the crop may still be damaged if a thaw follows freezing weather.
A decade ago the world’s top raw sugar importer, Russia has moved toward self-sufficiency in sugar in recent years, but has maintained a significant need for raw sugar imports, largely Brazilian, to refiners in the Black Sea region.
With the beet harvest around 70 percent complete, crop analysts see near-record beet sugar output in 2015.
Analyst Green Pool forecast Russia’s beet sugar crop at 4.85 million tonnes this year, up from 4.5 million tonnes last year.
That is not far from record Russian beet sugar production of 5.1 million tonnes in 2011/12.
“High Russian sugar prices - at around $700 per tonne during the beet planting window, and over $840 per tonne during the summer, proved to be a powerful elixir in boosting Russian beet sugar production,” said Tom McNeill, director of Green Pool.
According to Yevgeny Ivanov of Russian analyst IKAR, Russian beet sugar production had seen record months in August and September, with all-time high output expected in October.
The surge in domestic output will cut Russia’s import requirement for raw sugar.
“We are making more sugar, which in turn will hit imports in the first half of next year,” Ivanov said.
McNeill said he expected Russia to import 450,000 tonnes of raw sugar in 2015/16, down from 631,000 tonnes in 2014/15.
Another Western analyst forecast Russia’s raw sugar import requirement at around 500,000 tonnes in 2015/16, down from 700,000 tonnes in 2014/15.
Analysts said that even though Russia was producing sugar rapidly, beets risked damage if left in fields and temperatures warmed.
Sergey Gudoshnikov, a senior economist with the International Sugar Organization (ISO), who said Russia’s raw sugar imports could be halved in 2015/16, said weather risks would affect domestic production.
“Beet when frozen does not lose sugar content and can still be processed without serious difficulties,” he said.
“The problem starts when temperatures rebound from below zero to say +5 degrees Celsius. Defrosted beet may lose nearly all sugar content in a matter of days.”
This year unseasonably cold weather has come early to Russia, raising risks of beet losses.
"Cumulatively, some damage is expected, although Russia has been expecting an excellent crop in 2015/16," Green Pool said in its latest weekly report.
(Reporting by David Brough; Additional reporting by Jack Stubbs in Moscow; Editing by William Hardy)
©Thomson Reuters 2015. All rights reserved. The Thomson Reuters content received through this service is the intellectual property of Thomson Reuters or its third party suppliers. Republication or redistribution of content provided by Thomson Reuters is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters, except where permitted by the terms of the relevant Thomson Reuters service agreement. Neither Thomson Reuters nor its third party suppliers shall be liable for any errors, omissions or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.
August 2, 2019
Analyst Green Pool has raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar deficit in the 2019/20 season to 3.67 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 1.62 million.Read More
June 12, 2019
Global sugar deficit will be 1.62 mln tons in 2019/20, smaller than previously forecast, as consumption growth slows, researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists said in a report.Read More
February 1, 2019
The world sugar market is on course for a shortfall of 1.36 million tonnes (raw value), analyst Green Pool said on Friday in its first forecast for the 2019/20 season.Read More
February 1, 2019
World sugar production will fall behind consumption in 2019-20 for the first time in three seasons, and by the most in four, Green Pool said, terming the forecast a “positive for the market”.Read More
November 29, 2018
Analyst Green Pool said on Wednesday it had raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar surplus in the 2018/19 season to 3.60 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 3.22 million.Read More
August 30, 2018
Green Pool, highlighting India’s soaring sugar supplies, cautioned over the potential for prices of the sweetener to remain “low-ish”, even as it cut its forecast for output in many other producing countries.Read More
August 12, 2018
Changing consumer tastes raises the possibility of a long-term reduction in demand even as the world’s largest producers are notching record production. Green Pool Commodity Specialists, a consultancy, projects a 19 million-ton surplus this year, the largest ever.Read More
July 9, 2018
Surging ethanol stockpiles and tumbling prices for the biofuel risk bringing back more sugar production in top grower Brazil. “Prices have been coming down, ethanol stocks are building. Demand is strong but is probably not sufficient to clear the stocks,” said Tom McNeill, a director at Brisbane, Australia-based researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists. “I think this assumption that everyone has made that maximum ethanol is absolutely locked in could be challenged within the next three months.”Read More
May 4, 2018
July raw sugar settled down 0.06 cent, or 0.5 percent, at 11.69 cents per lb. Focus remained on a global supply glut, with commodity analyst Green Pool forecasting a combined sugar surplus of almost 25 million tonnes for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.Read More