Green Pool raises 2018/19 global sugar surplus forecasthttps://in.reuters.com/article/sugar-greenpool/green-pool-raises-2018-19-global-sugar-surplus-forecast-idINKCN1NX1T3
November 29, 2018 at 11:00 AM
Analyst Green Pool said on Wednesday it had raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar surplus in the 2018/19 season to 3.60 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 3.22 million.
The surplus was, however, still much smaller than the estimated 20.0 million tonnes for the 2017/18 season.
The Australia-based analyst said the adjustment from its last projection issued in late October was due to a fall in expected consumption reflecting lower-than-expected growth in a number of countries including Brazil and Thailand.
“While we revised production slightly downwards, this iteration of the global balance also sees a small downwards adjustment to global consumption,” the analyst said in a report.
Green Pool said the most contentious issue with its numbers was likely to be its estimate for Indian production which it left unchanged at 34.1 million tonnes, tel quel.
“This is contentious only because the Indian industry has lowered its crop forecast, and many analysts have followed suit,” Green Pool said.
“Yet early results for the harvest don’t look as bad as many assume, and an increased area should see the crop higher.”
Green Pool put India’s 2017/18 crop at 32.3 million.
The analyst downwardly revised its forecast for European Union sugar production in 2018/19 to 17.1 million tonnes, tel quel, from a previous projection of 17.7 million.
“This is mostly due to hot dry weather experienced in major beet growing countries over the summer,” Green Pool said.
August 2, 2019
Analyst Green Pool has raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar deficit in the 2019/20 season to 3.67 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 1.62 million.Read More
June 12, 2019
Global sugar deficit will be 1.62 mln tons in 2019/20, smaller than previously forecast, as consumption growth slows, researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists said in a report.Read More
February 1, 2019
The world sugar market is on course for a shortfall of 1.36 million tonnes (raw value), analyst Green Pool said on Friday in its first forecast for the 2019/20 season.Read More
February 1, 2019
World sugar production will fall behind consumption in 2019-20 for the first time in three seasons, and by the most in four, Green Pool said, terming the forecast a “positive for the market”.Read More
November 29, 2018
Analyst Green Pool said on Wednesday it had raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar surplus in the 2018/19 season to 3.60 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 3.22 million.Read More
August 30, 2018
Analyst Green Pool said on Thursday it had trimmed its forecast for an anticipated global sugar surplus in the 2018/19 season to 4.24 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 6.62 million.Read More
August 30, 2018
Green Pool, highlighting India’s soaring sugar supplies, cautioned over the potential for prices of the sweetener to remain “low-ish”, even as it cut its forecast for output in many other producing countries.Read More
August 12, 2018
Changing consumer tastes raises the possibility of a long-term reduction in demand even as the world’s largest producers are notching record production. Green Pool Commodity Specialists, a consultancy, projects a 19 million-ton surplus this year, the largest ever.Read More
July 9, 2018
Surging ethanol stockpiles and tumbling prices for the biofuel risk bringing back more sugar production in top grower Brazil. “Prices have been coming down, ethanol stocks are building. Demand is strong but is probably not sufficient to clear the stocks,” said Tom McNeill, a director at Brisbane, Australia-based researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists. “I think this assumption that everyone has made that maximum ethanol is absolutely locked in could be challenged within the next three months.”Read More
May 4, 2018
July raw sugar settled down 0.06 cent, or 0.5 percent, at 11.69 cents per lb. Focus remained on a global supply glut, with commodity analyst Green Pool forecasting a combined sugar surplus of almost 25 million tonnes for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.Read More