Green Pool trims 2018/19 sugar surplus forecast
August 30, 2018 at 12:42 AM
LONDON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Analyst Green Pool said on Thursday it had trimmed its forecast for an anticipated global sugar surplus in the 2018/19 season to 4.24 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 6.62 million.
"The major contributions to the drop in the 18/19 surplus estimate are the EU and CS (Centre-South) Brazil," the Australia-based analyst said in a report.
Green Pool put EU sugar output in 2018/19 at 17.7 million tonnes, white value, down from the prior season's 19.8 million.
"Ongoing hot, dry weather has now taken its toll on (EU) beet and sugar production prospects," the analyst said.
Sugar production in Centre-South Brazil was seen at 28.3 million tonnes in 2018/19, down from the previous season's 36.1 million.
"The very low mix devoted to sugar (rather than ethanol) is simply exceeding all historical norms, as millers pull out all stops to make the better paying hydrous ethanol," it said.
A huge crop in India, however, it set to keep the market in surplus with production seen at 33.5 million tonnes, tel quel, up from the prior season's already large 32.2 million.
Green Pool also raised its estimate for the global sugar surplus in 2017/18 to 19.9 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 19.6 million.
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Analyst Green Pool said on Wednesday it had raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar surplus in the 2018/19 season to 3.60 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 3.22 million.Read More
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Global sugar prices have tumbled about 33 percent in the past year on a global surplus as production increases in Europe and India. ISMA last month raised its 2017-18 sugar output estimate 4 percent to 26.1 million tons, the highest in three years. Green Pool Commodity Specialists this week forecast Indian production at 28.1 million tons, with expectations of an equal or better crop next season.Read More