India May Export More Sugar Than Forecast on Higher Yieldshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/india-may-export-more-sugar-than-forecast-on-higher-yields
February 23, 2018 at 4:13 AM
India may export more sugar than previously forecast as higher yields boost supply in the world’s top consumer.
Shipments may total 1.5 million metric tons in the next six to eight months, said Abinash Verma, director general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association. Last month, he said millers were asking the government to abolish a 20 percent export duty so they could attempt to ship about 1 million tons in the year started Oct. 1. India exported 1.66 million tons of sugar in 2015-16 and about 46,000 tons in 2016-17, according to the association.
Global sugar prices have tumbled about 33 percent in the past year on a global surplus as production increases in Europe and India. ISMA last month raised its 2017-18 sugar output estimate 4 percent to 26.1 million tons, the highest in three years. Green Pool Commodity Specialists this week forecast Indian production at 28.1 million tons, with expectations of an equal or better crop next season.
“Looking at the current trend of production till Feb. 15 and the reported high yields in Maharashtra and Karnataka, the sugar production estimate will be reviewed and may have to be revised,” Verma said in an interview in New Delhi on Thursday. “The increase in yields is a big surprise.”
Share prices of Indian sugar producers closed higher on Friday. Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd. gained 4.1 percent, Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. advanced 1.7 percent and Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd. rose 1.6 percent. In New York, raw sugar futures for May delivery dropped 0.9 percent to 13.46 cents per pound.
India imposes a duty of 20 percent on sugar exports, which millers are seeking to have abolished. Without the duty, an exporter may lose 10 rupees (15 cents) to 12 rupees a kilogram at current global prices, Verma said. Shippers could seek to export at a loss while also selling into the domestic market, where prices are elevated, he said. More than 90 percent of sugar output will be sold locally, he said.
“It is logical to export at a loss and recover that from domestic sales at increased prices,” Verma said. “We have requested the government to allot export quotas for individual mills. Production next year is going to be higher than this year on improved planting.”
Surplus sugar available for export may total 3 million to 4 million tons in the year starting Oct. 1, Verma estimated.
August 12, 2018
Changing consumer tastes raises the possibility of a long-term reduction in demand even as the world’s largest producers are notching record production. Green Pool Commodity Specialists, a consultancy, projects a 19 million-ton surplus this year, the largest ever.Read More
July 9, 2018
Surging ethanol stockpiles and tumbling prices for the biofuel risk bringing back more sugar production in top grower Brazil. “Prices have been coming down, ethanol stocks are building. Demand is strong but is probably not sufficient to clear the stocks,” said Tom McNeill, a director at Brisbane, Australia-based researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists. “I think this assumption that everyone has made that maximum ethanol is absolutely locked in could be challenged within the next three months.”Read More
May 4, 2018
July raw sugar settled down 0.06 cent, or 0.5 percent, at 11.69 cents per lb. Focus remained on a global supply glut, with commodity analyst Green Pool forecasting a combined sugar surplus of almost 25 million tonnes for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.Read More
May 3, 2018
The world’s sugar traders are experiencing the biggest ever global surplus. That’s according to Green Pool Commodity Specialists, which expects the glut to reach 18.4 million metric tons this season. The Brisbane, Australia-based researcher boosted its estimate by almost a quarter because of a massive increase in the sugar-cane area and yields in India, the No. 2 producer.Read More
May 2, 2018
For sugar, there’s no sweet ending in sight after a long period of declining prices. Australia-based consultancy Green Pool recently upped its surplus estimate by 43% to almost 15 million tons. The International Sugar Organization, the global trade body, sees a surplus of 5.2 million tons.Read More
March 29, 2018
Green Pool signalled further weakness ahead of sugar prices, lifting its forecasts for the world production surpluses this season and in 2018-19, and heralding a further one in 2019-20.Read More
February 23, 2018
Global sugar prices have tumbled about 33 percent in the past year on a global surplus as production increases in Europe and India. ISMA last month raised its 2017-18 sugar output estimate 4 percent to 26.1 million tons, the highest in three years. Green Pool Commodity Specialists this week forecast Indian production at 28.1 million tons, with expectations of an equal or better crop next season.Read More
February 6, 2018
Green Pool hinted at downbeat prospects for sugar prices as it raised its estimate for the production surplus for this season, forecast another stockbuild in 2018-19, and said a third one could be in the offing.Read More
January 3, 2018
March raw sugar settled down 0.02 cent, or 0.13 percent, at 15.31 cents per lb after peaking at 15.37 cents, its highest since Nov. 28. But focus on bearish fundamentals returned after closely-watched commodity analyst Green Pool on Wednesday raised its projections of a global surplus in 2017/18 to 10.43 million tonnes, up from a forecast of 9.8 million. [nL8N1OY1Q7Read More