Sugar Low: Commodity Plummets on Surplushttps://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2018/05/01/sugar-low-commodity-plummets-on-surplus/
May 02, 2018 at 4:42 AM
For sugar, there’s no sweet ending in sight after a long period of declining prices.
And analysts forecast another surplus next season, which begins in October, suggesting a recovery in sugar prices is a long way off.
“Pretty much every bit of news coming out right now is bearish,” said Nick Penney a senior trader at Sucden Financial Limited.
As the current season wears on, consultancies and trade bodies have been raising their production forecasts.
Australia-based consultancy Green Pool recently upped its surplus estimate by 43% to almost 15 million tons. The International Sugar Organization, the global trade body, sees a surplus of 5.2 million tons.
The last growing season, from 2016 to 2017, recorded a 2.5 million ton deficit.
But now, a bunch of big sugar growers are opening the floodgates.
In particular, production in India—the world’s second-largest producer—has piled pressure on prices. The Indian government is expected to create subsidies to encourage sugar exports for the first time since late 2013.
The European Union has lifted export quotas that had previously kept a lid on sugar coming out of the bloc, the third largest global producer. Thailand is also adding to the pile with its own big sugar haul. European and Thai supply are forecast to have increased 21% and 22% respectively in the 2017/18 season, according to the ISO.
Brazil, the world’s largest producer, may produce less sugar than it did in its record season last year, but that reduction will “barely leave a dent” in the global excess, said John Stansfield, an analyst at sugar trading house Group Sopex.
The excess supply comes despite resilient demand.
Even as the U.K. and other places introduce sugar taxes, global consumption is set to grow 1.6% in 2017/18, in-line with the five-year average, the ISO said.
The Far East and Oceania region accounts for the largest proportion of consumption and is the region with the second fastest growth, behind Equatorial and Southern Africa.
The falling price of sugar is taking its toll on the companies that trade it.
In one example, ED&F Man Holdings recently confirmed the departure of the managing director of its sugar division, amid a wider restructuring.
“I don’t see any relief for the market next season and if you look at the sugar trading outlook and the number of trading houses in the market, they’re competing more aggressively for that market,”said Warren Patterson, strategist at ING.
August 2, 2019
Analyst Green Pool has raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar deficit in the 2019/20 season to 3.67 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 1.62 million.Read More
June 12, 2019
Global sugar deficit will be 1.62 mln tons in 2019/20, smaller than previously forecast, as consumption growth slows, researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists said in a report.Read More
February 1, 2019
The world sugar market is on course for a shortfall of 1.36 million tonnes (raw value), analyst Green Pool said on Friday in its first forecast for the 2019/20 season.Read More
February 1, 2019
World sugar production will fall behind consumption in 2019-20 for the first time in three seasons, and by the most in four, Green Pool said, terming the forecast a “positive for the market”.Read More
November 29, 2018
Analyst Green Pool said on Wednesday it had raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar surplus in the 2018/19 season to 3.60 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 3.22 million.Read More
August 30, 2018
Green Pool, highlighting India’s soaring sugar supplies, cautioned over the potential for prices of the sweetener to remain “low-ish”, even as it cut its forecast for output in many other producing countries.Read More
August 12, 2018
Changing consumer tastes raises the possibility of a long-term reduction in demand even as the world’s largest producers are notching record production. Green Pool Commodity Specialists, a consultancy, projects a 19 million-ton surplus this year, the largest ever.Read More
July 9, 2018
Surging ethanol stockpiles and tumbling prices for the biofuel risk bringing back more sugar production in top grower Brazil. “Prices have been coming down, ethanol stocks are building. Demand is strong but is probably not sufficient to clear the stocks,” said Tom McNeill, a director at Brisbane, Australia-based researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists. “I think this assumption that everyone has made that maximum ethanol is absolutely locked in could be challenged within the next three months.”Read More
May 4, 2018
July raw sugar settled down 0.06 cent, or 0.5 percent, at 11.69 cents per lb. Focus remained on a global supply glut, with commodity analyst Green Pool forecasting a combined sugar surplus of almost 25 million tonnes for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.Read More