July 3, 2017Green Pool highlighted the threat to sugar consumption from the likes of health concerns and rival sweeteners as it raised by 837,000 tonnes its forecast for the looming world sugar production surplus. The Australia-based sugar consultancy revised up to 5.55m tonnes its forecast for the global output surplus in 2017-18, taking it to the largest since 2013-14.
May 24, 2017It’s not this year’s price crash that haunts the $150 billion sugar industry. It’s the fear of worse to come. Raw sugar’s 16 percent drop ranks it bottom of the 22 raw materials on the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Shocks to demand in top consumer India and prospects of more European supply are helping shift the market to a surplus, hurting prices. Yet beyond such market dampeners, hang darker clouds. After decades of stable demand growth, almost doubling per person since 1960, the world is heading for a tipping point as shoppers turn against the cola and candy blamed for an obesity epidemic in the rich world. At the same time, sugar has to compete with cheap syrups increasingly used in processed food. "Growth is not what it’s been," Tom McNeill, managing director of Green Pool, said in an interview. "There is undoubtedly a move by global bottlers and by a lot of global food manufacturers to reduce the sugar content in their products."
May 24, 2017The "war on sugar" being waged by governments and consumers to combat public health emergencies like diabetes is slowing growth in global demand, which along with other factors could signal a fundamental shift in consumption ahead. Consumption may grow at its slowest pace in seven years in 2017/18, according to analyst group Platts Kingsman. It forecasts a rise of 1.04 percent, nearly half the average growth of about 2 percent per year over the last decade. "Consumption is generally stagnating in developed countries," Tom McNeill, director at commodity analyst group Green Pool, told Reuters.
May 9, 2017Global sugar exports will exceed demand this season and the next as India brings in less than expected and the European Union boosts output, according to Tropical Research Services, which advises hedge funds. Exports will beat import demand every quarter through September 2018, TRS estimates. The trade-flow surplus will total 398,000 metric tons in the third quarter, reversing a previous forecast for a shortage of more than double that amount, said Sean Diffley, the firm’s head of sugar and ethanol research.
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At Green Pool, we provide economic and market analysis to a select client base of growers, processors, consumers, government, investors, traders and hedge funds. We pride ourselves on being independent and privately owned. Our analyst team is comprised of a mixture of commercial practitioners and academics up to Masters and PhD level.
This means that in addition to having very broad, real world commercial experience, we can give totally independent advice – something that we feel is crucially important. Consequently, we are able to work closely with our clients to tailor solutions that fit their specific and individual needs and objectives.
5:51 pm, August 21, 2017Strong Aussie $ still erodes export returns for sugar, currently A$372 on offer for Oct (banks), $378 for 17 Season & $414 approx for 2018
5:45 pm, August 21, 2017Raw sugar threatened to plunge lower Wed/Thurs last week, but recovered Friday to 13.41 c/lb close. Still below ethanol parity in CS Brazil.
3:58 pm, August 15, 2017Monday's sugar market bounced after 9 days of falls - no compelling fundamental reasons - maybe just selling fatigue? Ethanol parity over 14
6:07 pm, August 7, 2017Indian sugar prices still pressured upwards by low stocks - govt considering allowing further imports into south India to prevent shortages
6:05 pm, August 7, 2017Increase in ethanol parity in Brazil is helping sugar market - despite weakening fundamentals and last Thursday's flash crash in prices