Green Pool - Green Pool Commodity Specialists

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LEADERS IN SUGAR AND BIOFUELS ANALYSIS

Mapping
tomorrow's
markets

Comprehensive and skillful analysis of global sugar and biofuels markets, from globally respected experts with extensive, in-depth experience

Comprehensive and skillful analysis of global sugar
and biofuels markets, from globally respected
experts with extensive, in-depth experience

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Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool India Update

15 October 2026

• 2025/26 season surprised - low production, high diversion to ethanol, exports

• End Sept 26 stocks extremely tight, STU a record low of 16.9%

• 2026 monsoon rains disappointed, monsoon withdrawn, we lower prod'n

• Early harvest start will again impact crop maturity & production outcomes

• It seems no ethanol will be made from sugar syrup/B-molasses [...]

• 2025/26 season surprised - low production, high diversion to ethanol, exports

• End Sept 26 stocks extremely tight, STU a record low of 16.9%

• 2026 monsoon rains disappointed, monsoon withdrawn, we lower prod'n

• Early harvest start will again impact crop maturity & production outcomes

• It seems no ethanol will be made from sugar syrup/B-molasses in 26/27

• Outlook for 27/28 crop could be lower, given lack of planting this year

• Imports appear a certainty, but currently import arb is negative

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Ethanol Arbs & Parities Report

14 October 2026

• Brazil: Sugar & ethanol prices rise, keeping hydrous at a sizeable discount vs. sugar

• Brazil: Corn ethanol margins improved sharply; hydrous/gasoline parities rose again

• US: Production margins continue to escalate as bearishness hits the corn market

• China: Corn market continues to decline; corn ethanol margins improve

[...]

• Brazil: Sugar & ethanol prices rise, keeping hydrous at a sizeable discount vs. sugar

• Brazil: Corn ethanol margins improved sharply; hydrous/gasoline parities rose again

• US: Production margins continue to escalate as bearishness hits the corn market

• China: Corn market continues to decline; corn ethanol margins improve

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Sugar Crop Weather Report

13 October 2026

• CS Brazil: Further showers and storms forecast this week

• Mexico: USDA expects small rise in sugar output for 26/27

• Argentina: Late frost forecast for week ahead

• Colombia: By end-July, sugar at 1.125 mln mt (+10% y-o-y)

• USA: WASDE lowers 26/27 sugar output to 7.36 mln mttq

• China: All 12 factories are now underway in Xinjiang

• [...]

• CS Brazil: Further showers and storms forecast this week

• Mexico: USDA expects small rise in sugar output for 26/27

• Argentina: Late frost forecast for week ahead

• Colombia: By end-July, sugar at 1.125 mln mt (+10% y-o-y)

• USA: WASDE lowers 26/27 sugar output to 7.36 mln mttq

• China: All 12 factories are now underway in Xinjiang

• India: Monsoon fully withdrawn from UP, Maha, North KNK

• ENSO: El Niño continues to strengthen, likely to last into Q1

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Ethanol Crop Weather Report

9 October 2026

• Brazil: Showery weather continues across CS Brazil

• Brazil: Summer corn plantings advance to 30.8%

• Argentina: 20.3 mln mt cane milled to 8th October

• Colombia: 13.2 mln mt milled to end-July, +6% higher y-o-y

• USA: Corn 23% harvested, winter wheat 36% planted

• EU: French corn 67% harvested; Germany trims beet crop

• [...]

• Brazil: Showery weather continues across CS Brazil

• Brazil: Summer corn plantings advance to 30.8%

• Argentina: 20.3 mln mt cane milled to 8th October

• Colombia: 13.2 mln mt milled to end-July, +6% higher y-o-y

• USA: Corn 23% harvested, winter wheat 36% planted

• EU: French corn 67% harvested; Germany trims beet crop

• China: Favourable weather for corn harvest in NE China

• India: Monsoon withdraws, fine weather for Maha & UP

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Bio-Based Diesel Market Report

9 October 2026

• US: Diesel stocks remain tight; a US diesel export ban is no longer under discussion

• US: Bio-based diesel exports weakened in August, while imports stayed low

• Brazil: Strong biodiesel production in Aug 26 while sales were sluggish

• Spain: Biodiesel sales and blending weakened; diesel demand remains steady

• China: UCO domestic demand remains [...]

• US: Diesel stocks remain tight; a US diesel export ban is no longer under discussion

• US: Bio-based diesel exports weakened in August, while imports stayed low

• Brazil: Strong biodiesel production in Aug 26 while sales were sluggish

• Spain: Biodiesel sales and blending weakened; diesel demand remains steady

• China: UCO domestic demand remains firm as HVO/SAF capacity grows

• China: HVO market supported by export orders; HVO enquiries exceeded SAF

• Malaysia: Biodiesel output is higher in FH 26; B15 rollout requires stronger supply

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Bio-Based Diesel Feedstocks Report

2 October 2026

• Brazil: Soy plantings reach 3.9%, CONAB expects 182 mln mt

• US: Soy 17% harvested, rain this week to slow south harvest

• Canada: Canola harvest underway, 22.1 mln mt forecast

• Indonesia: GAPKI expects 2027 palm oil output to fall -5%

• Malaysia: Sep palm oil output expected to increase m-o-m

• Australia: Canola production to [...]

• Brazil: Soy plantings reach 3.9%, CONAB expects 182 mln mt

• US: Soy 17% harvested, rain this week to slow south harvest

• Canada: Canola harvest underway, 22.1 mln mt forecast

• Indonesia: GAPKI expects 2027 palm oil output to fall -5%

• Malaysia: Sep palm oil output expected to increase m-o-m

• Australia: Canola production to fall -5% to 7.3 mln mt in 2026

• EU: EC trims French sunflower output; bumps EU27 higher

• EU: Drought to cause decline in 26/27 rapeseed area

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As a trusted source of forward-looking insight, our team has extensive and in-depth experience in sugar and biofuels markets, blending climate and crop agronomy specialisation with broad fundamental and economic analysis.

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