Green Pool - Green Pool Commodity Specialists

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LEADERS IN SUGAR AND BIOFUELS ANALYSIS

Mapping
tomorrow's
markets

Comprehensive and skillful analysis of global sugar and biofuels markets, from globally respected experts with extensive, in-depth experience

Comprehensive and skillful analysis of global sugar
and biofuels markets, from globally respected
experts with extensive, in-depth experience

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Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool CS Brazil Update

29 October 2026

• CS Brazil harvest continues to struggle with wet spring weather

• Milling FH Oct slumped 20% to 27.3 mln mt vs 34.1 mln mt 25/26

• ATR continues its seasonal decline, 143.3, down 10% y-o-y

• Mix to sugar was 47.4% (52.4% last yr), due to rain/quality issues

• Sugar output 1.87 mln mt, down 25% fm 2.49 mln in 25/26

• Ethanol output [...]

• CS Brazil harvest continues to struggle with wet spring weather

• Milling FH Oct slumped 20% to 27.3 mln mt vs 34.1 mln mt 25/26

• ATR continues its seasonal decline, 143.3, down 10% y-o-y

• Mix to sugar was 47.4% (52.4% last yr), due to rain/quality issues

• Sugar output 1.87 mln mt, down 25% fm 2.49 mln in 25/26

• Ethanol output fell 23% to 1.53 bln L, -25% on the year

• While we keep a 37.3 mln mt sugar f'cast, it needs a good interharvest

• Our forecast assumes a high-end 127 mln mt crush to end-Mar 27

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Global Ethanol Report

29 October 2026

• US Ethanol: Prod'n margin continues to rise; greenfield project announced

• Corn – BRL depreciation pressured corn prices; funds still trimming net long

• Energies – Crude stocks lower than expected, crude prod’n at record level

• Brazil - ethanol prices higher, hydrous +2.6%, but anhydrous the star (+8%)

• Brazil - harvest in FH Oct lower, [...]

• US Ethanol: Prod'n margin continues to rise; greenfield project announced

• Corn – BRL depreciation pressured corn prices; funds still trimming net long

• Energies – Crude stocks lower than expected, crude prod’n at record level

• Brazil - ethanol prices higher, hydrous +2.6%, but anhydrous the star (+8%)

• Brazil - harvest in FH Oct lower, ethanol prod'n fell 23% on the fortnight

• EU - spot ethanol prices jump 7.4%, stronger buying, sharply higher swaps

• Sweden – Ethanol’s share of gasoline drops to a 17-month low

• Thailand: Ethanol exports up in Sep 26 helped by renewed exports to Japan

• China: NEV share continues to rise; fuel ethanol sales in Sep 26 disappoint

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Ethanol Arbs & Parities Report

28 October 2026

• Brazil: Retail parity increases; sharp Real depreciation briefly closes the import arb

• EU: Production margin remains negative; ethanol at parity with sugar

• US: Retail gasoline price easing, though still record; Prod’n margin eased a bit

• China: NEV shares continued to rise; fuel ethanol sales in Sep 26 disappoint

[...]

• Brazil: Retail parity increases; sharp Real depreciation briefly closes the import arb

• EU: Production margin remains negative; ethanol at parity with sugar

• US: Retail gasoline price easing, though still record; Prod’n margin eased a bit

• China: NEV shares continued to rise; fuel ethanol sales in Sep 26 disappoint

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Sugar Crop Weather Report

27 October 2026

• CS Brazil: SH October brings above average rainfall

• Mexico: Conadesuca sees 26/27 sugar at 5.3 mln mt

• Peru: Jan to August sugar 3% higher on year at 0.67 mln mt

• USA: Beet crops 75% harvested

• EU & UK: October MARS makes small downgrade to yields

• China: Yunnan to start milling this week, outlook positive

• India: [...]

• CS Brazil: SH October brings above average rainfall

• Mexico: Conadesuca sees 26/27 sugar at 5.3 mln mt

• Peru: Jan to August sugar 3% higher on year at 0.67 mln mt

• USA: Beet crops 75% harvested

• EU & UK: October MARS makes small downgrade to yields

• China: Yunnan to start milling this week, outlook positive

• India: 86 mills underway Maharashtra, 3.7 mln mt milled

• Thailand: Monsoon remains active across central Thailand

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Bio-Based Diesel Market Report

23 October 2026

• US: Diesel output rose as demand fell and stocks increased

• US: RIN generation remained below the pace needed to meet the mandate

• Europe: FAME and HVO imports increased in August

• China: FAME and HVO exports fell sharply in September

• China: SAF exports rose to a record 157 k mt in September

• Thailand: Biodiesel sales eased [...]

• US: Diesel output rose as demand fell and stocks increased

• US: RIN generation remained below the pace needed to meet the mandate

• Europe: FAME and HVO imports increased in August

• China: FAME and HVO exports fell sharply in September

• China: SAF exports rose to a record 157 k mt in September

• Thailand: Biodiesel sales eased but remained well above last year

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Bio-Based Diesel Feedstocks Report

16 October 2026

• Brazil: Soy plantings reach 16%, Conab expects 182 mln mt

• US: Soy 46% harvested, WASDE revises crop to 124.15 mln mt

• Canada: Canola and soy harvests both progressing well

• Indonesia: Drop in palm oil output in 2027 is of concern

• Malaysia: Strong Sep production sees stocks build

• Australia: Private analysts expect canola to [...]

• Brazil: Soy plantings reach 16%, Conab expects 182 mln mt

• US: Soy 46% harvested, WASDE revises crop to 124.15 mln mt

• Canada: Canola and soy harvests both progressing well

• Indonesia: Drop in palm oil output in 2027 is of concern

• Malaysia: Strong Sep production sees stocks build

• Australia: Private analysts expect canola to rise to 8.1 mln mt

• EU: EU27 sunflower rises 14% in 26/27 to 9.7 mln mt

• EU: Drought to cause decline in 26/27 rapeseed area

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Green Pool provides commodity market analysis and data to a diverse range of clients globally, including major producers, trade houses, processors, end users, hedge funds and banking groups.

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About Us

As a trusted source of forward-looking insight, our team has extensive and in-depth experience in sugar and biofuels markets, blending climate and crop agronomy specialisation with broad fundamental and economic analysis.

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