Green Pool - Green Pool Commodity Specialists

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LEADERS IN SUGAR AND BIOFUELS ANALYSIS

Mapping
tomorrow's
markets

Comprehensive and skillful analysis of global sugar and biofuels markets, from globally respected experts with extensive, in-depth experience

Comprehensive and skillful analysis of global sugar
and biofuels markets, from globally respected
experts with extensive, in-depth experience

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Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Global Ethanol Report

22 October 2026

• US Ethanol: Bearish EIA report w/ prod’n up, blend rate fell sub 10%; stocks up

• Corn: Cash corn continues to fall, boosting ethanol production margin

• Energies: Crude & gasoline stocks fell less than f’cast; Cushing stocks up again

• Brazil: ethanol prices up R$30 both types, with 26/27 f'cast output down

• Brazil: Implied ethanol use in [...]

• US Ethanol: Bearish EIA report w/ prod’n up, blend rate fell sub 10%; stocks up

• Corn: Cash corn continues to fall, boosting ethanol production margin

• Energies: Crude & gasoline stocks fell less than f’cast; Cushing stocks up again

• Brazil: ethanol prices up R$30 both types, with 26/27 f'cast output down

• Brazil: Implied ethanol use in SH Sep a record, up 14.3% vs FH Sep

• EU ethanol - EU prices down, ARA well stocked, recent high imports weigh

• EU Imports: Aug 26 ethanol imports up 27% y-o-y; US the leading origin

• China: corn ethanol made gains, with some facilities doing maintenance

• India: OMC's tender for 11 bln L fuel ethanol; main sugar feedstocks ruled out

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Ethanol Arbs & Parities Report

21 October 2026

• Brazil sugar prices have fallen more sharply in BRL terms

• Gasoline import margins into Brazil fell, tightens the gap vs parity

• India - ethanol import margins from US improve, but still negative

• US ethanol prod'n margins continue recent rally

• RBOB/WTI spread fell to the lowest level in 6.5 months

• Thai ethanol price rose [...]

• Brazil sugar prices have fallen more sharply in BRL terms

• Gasoline import margins into Brazil fell, tightens the gap vs parity

• India - ethanol import margins from US improve, but still negative

• US ethanol prod'n margins continue recent rally

• RBOB/WTI spread fell to the lowest level in 6.5 months

• Thai ethanol price rose in Sep, strong demand for feedstocks

• Thai cassava ethanol prod'n rose 17% in July 26

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Sugar Crop Weather Report

20 October 2026

• CS Brazil: Fine weather returns after heavy mid-Oct rain

• Argentina: Rain causing delays to harvest and milling

• Kenya: Strong milling continues during August

• Russia: Beet yields support 51 – 52 mln mt crop

• Ukraine: Early beet yields very good at 50 mt/ha

• EU & UK: Cristal Union sends damaged beets to eth & syrups

• [...]

• CS Brazil: Fine weather returns after heavy mid-Oct rain

• Argentina: Rain causing delays to harvest and milling

• Kenya: Strong milling continues during August

• Russia: Beet yields support 51 – 52 mln mt crop

• Ukraine: Early beet yields very good at 50 mt/ha

• EU & UK: Cristal Union sends damaged beets to eth & syrups

• China: Drought emerging in Guangxi

• India: 17 mills underway Maharashtra, low early sugar %

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool CS Brazil Update

16 October 2026

• SH Sep saw milling rebound to 38.6 mln mt, -6% y-o-y but improved vs. FH Sep

• Wet weather is continuing in Oct, similar to other very wet El Niño years

• ATR started its seasonal decline in SH Sep, falling -7% y-o-y to 146.4 kg/mt

• The sugar mix rebounded from FH Sep's very low result to a high-end 53.1%

• Ethanol production recovered +15% [...]

• SH Sep saw milling rebound to 38.6 mln mt, -6% y-o-y but improved vs. FH Sep

• Wet weather is continuing in Oct, similar to other very wet El Niño years

• ATR started its seasonal decline in SH Sep, falling -7% y-o-y to 146.4 kg/mt

• The sugar mix rebounded from FH Sep's very low result to a high-end 53.1%

• Ethanol production recovered +15% on the fortnight but remained fairly low

• Ethanol sales rose to a near-record 1.71 bln L, but the hydrous share fell

• Green Pool revised its seasonal estimates lower on account of these results

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Bio-Based Diesel Feedstocks Report

16 October 2026

• Brazil: Soy plantings reach 16%, Conab expects 182 mln mt

• US: Soy 46% harvested, WASDE revises crop to 124.15 mln mt

• Canada: Canola and soy harvests both progressing well

• Indonesia: Drop in palm oil output in 2027 is of concern

• Malaysia: Strong Sep production sees stocks build

• Australia: Private analysts expect canola to [...]

• Brazil: Soy plantings reach 16%, Conab expects 182 mln mt

• US: Soy 46% harvested, WASDE revises crop to 124.15 mln mt

• Canada: Canola and soy harvests both progressing well

• Indonesia: Drop in palm oil output in 2027 is of concern

• Malaysia: Strong Sep production sees stocks build

• Australia: Private analysts expect canola to rise to 8.1 mln mt

• EU: EU27 sunflower rises 14% in 26/27 to 9.7 mln mt

• EU: Drought to cause decline in 26/27 rapeseed area

Latest Sugar Report

Green Pool Bio-Based Diesel Market Report

9 October 2026

• US: Diesel stocks remain tight; a US diesel export ban is no longer under discussion

• US: Bio-based diesel exports weakened in August, while imports stayed low

• Brazil: Strong biodiesel production in Aug 26 while sales were sluggish

• Spain: Biodiesel sales and blending weakened; diesel demand remains steady

• China: UCO domestic demand remains [...]

• US: Diesel stocks remain tight; a US diesel export ban is no longer under discussion

• US: Bio-based diesel exports weakened in August, while imports stayed low

• Brazil: Strong biodiesel production in Aug 26 while sales were sluggish

• Spain: Biodiesel sales and blending weakened; diesel demand remains steady

• China: UCO domestic demand remains firm as HVO/SAF capacity grows

• China: HVO market supported by export orders; HVO enquiries exceeded SAF

• Malaysia: Biodiesel output is higher in FH 26; B15 rollout requires stronger supply

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As a trusted source of forward-looking insight, our team has extensive and in-depth experience in sugar and biofuels markets, blending climate and crop agronomy specialisation with broad fundamental and economic analysis.

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