Green Pool Boosts 2017-18 Sugar Forecast by 28%http://www.insidefutures.com/article/2037612/Morning%20Softs.%20%2008/23/17.html
August 23, 2017 at 12:07 PM
Commodities consultancy Green Pool increased its estimate for global sugar production in 2017-18 by 28% to a 7.14 million metric ton surplus compared with its previous forecast in early May.
The forecast outstrips the International Sugar Organization's most recent estimate of 4 million tons, Rabobank's 2.7 million ton estimate, and F.O. Licht's forecast of 5.4 million tons.
Green Pool's upgrade to its forecast was primarily driven by a 6% increase to production estimates, which outstripped a 1.5% increase in its consumption forecast.
High prices in 2016 and weather provide a large boost to production, Green Pool said. Meanwhile the consultancy expects global consumption to be beset by those same high prices from 2016, high tariffs, higher taxes, and rising health concerns.
In the forecast update, Green Pool maintained its optimism that Brazil would see strong sugar production, despite recent tax changes that make it more profitable for crushers to produce ethanol. "It would take a much steeper fall in sugar prices to change that outlook," Green Pool said. Elsewhere, the consultancy raised its crop production estimates for Thailand for both this season and next, citing a beneficial monsoon after two years of El Nino-induced drought.
Green Pool left its Chinese production forecast unchanged. This came on the same day as new Chinese import figures showed a drop of 85% year-over-year of the quantities of sugar entering the country. That makes July's import figure of 59,533 tons the lowest since June 2013, according to ING in a morning note.
The consultancy also adjusted its 2016-17 deficit figure to 2.08 million tons from the late June estimate of 2.04 million tons--a 2% change--thanks to a later-than-usual Pakistani crop.
Raw sugar prices were last 1.1% higher at 13.66 U.S. cents.
May 4, 2018
July raw sugar settled down 0.06 cent, or 0.5 percent, at 11.69 cents per lb. Focus remained on a global supply glut, with commodity analyst Green Pool forecasting a combined sugar surplus of almost 25 million tonnes for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.Read More
May 3, 2018
The world’s sugar traders are experiencing the biggest ever global surplus. That’s according to Green Pool Commodity Specialists, which expects the glut to reach 18.4 million metric tons this season. The Brisbane, Australia-based researcher boosted its estimate by almost a quarter because of a massive increase in the sugar-cane area and yields in India, the No. 2 producer.Read More
May 2, 2018
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March 29, 2018
Green Pool signalled further weakness ahead of sugar prices, lifting its forecasts for the world production surpluses this season and in 2018-19, and heralding a further one in 2019-20.Read More
February 23, 2018
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February 6, 2018
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January 3, 2018
March raw sugar settled down 0.02 cent, or 0.13 percent, at 15.31 cents per lb after peaking at 15.37 cents, its highest since Nov. 28. But focus on bearish fundamentals returned after closely-watched commodity analyst Green Pool on Wednesday raised its projections of a global surplus in 2017/18 to 10.43 million tonnes, up from a forecast of 9.8 million. [nL8N1OY1Q7Read More
January 3, 2018
Green Pool hinted at the potential for sugar price weakness as it lifted to a 15-year high its forecast for the extent of supplies of the sweetener, citing strong production prospects in the likes of India and Thailand. The Australian-based analysis group raised by 629,000 tonnes to 10.43m tonnes its forecast for the world sugar production surplus in 2017-18 - while reducing by 664,000 tonnes to 1.11m tonnes its estimate for the output shortfall last season.Read More
November 2, 2017
The global sugar market is poised for a surplus of 9.80 million tonnes 2017/18, Australia-based analyst Green Pool said on Tuesday, amid stronger production and sluggish consumption growth.Read More