Green Pool Boosts 2017-18 Sugar Forecast by 28%http://www.insidefutures.com/article/2037612/Morning%20Softs.%20%2008/23/17.html
August 23, 2017 at 12:07 PM
Commodities consultancy Green Pool increased its estimate for global sugar production in 2017-18 by 28% to a 7.14 million metric ton surplus compared with its previous forecast in early May.
The forecast outstrips the International Sugar Organization's most recent estimate of 4 million tons, Rabobank's 2.7 million ton estimate, and F.O. Licht's forecast of 5.4 million tons.
Green Pool's upgrade to its forecast was primarily driven by a 6% increase to production estimates, which outstripped a 1.5% increase in its consumption forecast.
High prices in 2016 and weather provide a large boost to production, Green Pool said. Meanwhile the consultancy expects global consumption to be beset by those same high prices from 2016, high tariffs, higher taxes, and rising health concerns.
In the forecast update, Green Pool maintained its optimism that Brazil would see strong sugar production, despite recent tax changes that make it more profitable for crushers to produce ethanol. "It would take a much steeper fall in sugar prices to change that outlook," Green Pool said. Elsewhere, the consultancy raised its crop production estimates for Thailand for both this season and next, citing a beneficial monsoon after two years of El Nino-induced drought.
Green Pool left its Chinese production forecast unchanged. This came on the same day as new Chinese import figures showed a drop of 85% year-over-year of the quantities of sugar entering the country. That makes July's import figure of 59,533 tons the lowest since June 2013, according to ING in a morning note.
The consultancy also adjusted its 2016-17 deficit figure to 2.08 million tons from the late June estimate of 2.04 million tons--a 2% change--thanks to a later-than-usual Pakistani crop.
Raw sugar prices were last 1.1% higher at 13.66 U.S. cents.
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Global sugar prices have tumbled about 33 percent in the past year on a global surplus as production increases in Europe and India. ISMA last month raised its 2017-18 sugar output estimate 4 percent to 26.1 million tons, the highest in three years. Green Pool Commodity Specialists this week forecast Indian production at 28.1 million tons, with expectations of an equal or better crop next season.Read More
February 6, 2018
Green Pool hinted at downbeat prospects for sugar prices as it raised its estimate for the production surplus for this season, forecast another stockbuild in 2018-19, and said a third one could be in the offing.Read More
January 3, 2018
March raw sugar settled down 0.02 cent, or 0.13 percent, at 15.31 cents per lb after peaking at 15.37 cents, its highest since Nov. 28. But focus on bearish fundamentals returned after closely-watched commodity analyst Green Pool on Wednesday raised its projections of a global surplus in 2017/18 to 10.43 million tonnes, up from a forecast of 9.8 million. [nL8N1OY1Q7Read More
January 3, 2018
Green Pool hinted at the potential for sugar price weakness as it lifted to a 15-year high its forecast for the extent of supplies of the sweetener, citing strong production prospects in the likes of India and Thailand. The Australian-based analysis group raised by 629,000 tonnes to 10.43m tonnes its forecast for the world sugar production surplus in 2017-18 - while reducing by 664,000 tonnes to 1.11m tonnes its estimate for the output shortfall last season.Read More
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The global sugar market is poised for a surplus of 9.80 million tonnes 2017/18, Australia-based analyst Green Pool said on Tuesday, amid stronger production and sluggish consumption growth.Read More
November 1, 2017
World sugar dynamics are the “worst” - for bulls – in at least 12 years, Green Pool said, hiking its estimate of the global output surplus, and hinting at the potential for further growth in stocks “into 2018-19 and perhaps beyond”.Read More
August 24, 2017
The global sugar surplus is expanding as Brazil, Thailand and the European Union drive world production to record, according to Green Pool Commodity Specialists. Supplies will outpace demand by 7.1 million metric tons in the 2017-18 season that starts in October in most countries, a 29 percent increase from a May forecast.Read More